RALEIGH, N.C. — On Thursday, polling results from Capen Analytics shed new light on the upcoming Republican Primary Election. In addition to the fresh look inside the presidential and gubernatorial primaries, the data reveals an intriguing development in the 11-way Lt. Governor race, with former legislative aide Hal Weatherman in the driver’s seat.

In a survey conducted on February 21, 2024, Capen Analytics found that Weatherman, who has never held elected office, secured 21% support among respondents. There are several other notable names, including legislators past and present, who are strong contenders as well. While the impressive showing by Weatherman underscores his potential in a crowded field, he falls significantly short of the 30% + 1 threshold needed to avoid a runoff – making this a wildcard race.

The study found former president Donald J. Trump leading former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley by over 28 points among likely Republican primary voters (64% to 36%). This decisive of a margin so close to the election, we likely won’t see much paid media from either candidate as they put their resources into other states.

In the 3-way gubernatorial race, sitting Lt. Governor Mark Robinson holds a strong position with 53% of the vote. His closest competitor, current State Treasurer Dale Folwell, is 24 points behind him with 29% of the vote. While this is a distant second place, it shows growing momentum behind the Folwell campaign when compared to previous polls which had Folwell at less than 20% just weeks ago. Folwell is endorsed by the State Employees’ Association of North Carolina (SEANC), which boasts the 2nd largest political action committee in the state. Short of any surprises, it is seeming Robinson will be the Republican nominee.

David Capen, president of Capen Analytics, commented on the significance of these findings, stating, “This fresh look into North Carolina’s Republican primary electorate showcases the significant differences between candidates up and down the ballot. While most of these races seem like foregone conclusions, the shifting trends tell another story: Republican primary voters remain open minded leading up to Election Day on March 5.”

Primary Election Day less than 2 weeks away, political observers will be closely watching the evolving dynamics of these races. Capen Analytics remains available to provide accurate and timely polling data to inform voters, stakeholders, and the media.

For the full report, please visit www.Analytics.CapenConsulting.com.