GREENVILLE – Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved North Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District from Safe Republican to Likely Republican, citing outside support for Democrat Raymond Smith and a district made less Republican by the state’s latest congressional map.
The Sept. 29 change keeps Republican U.S. Rep. Greg Murphy favored while signaling that the race is less secure than the forecaster previously judged. A race rating is an expert assessment, not a poll result or a stated probability of victory.
Crystal Ball said Smith, a former state representative, has attracted enough outside support to put pressure on Murphy. The analysis cited more than $300,000 in outside spending against the incumbent. Reuters reported Sept. 27 that Democratic groups had spent more than $326,000 opposing Murphy since July, based on federal filings.
Republican-aligned spending has also entered the district. Reuters reported that a conservative PAC spent $131,107 supporting Murphy, part of a broader effort by Republican groups to defend House seats that had previously drawn less attention.
The forecaster linked the rating change to North Carolina’s revised congressional map. Republican lawmakers redrew the 1st and 3rd districts in 2025, making the 1st more favorable to Republicans while moving some coastal Republican voters from Murphy’s district into the 1st. The 3rd now includes all of Pitt County, including Greenville.
Crystal Ball also noted that Onslow County remains a significant Republican base in the district and said a Democratic victory would still be a difficult outcome. The shift from Safe Republican to Likely Republican does not mean the race is considered a toss-up.
The North Carolina State Board of Elections’ current general-election candidate list shows Smith, Murphy and Libertarian Daniel Cavender running in District 3.
The change is a fresh assessment of the same contest in which outside spending was reported last week. It does not represent a new public poll, and the spending totals cited by Crystal Ball and Reuters should not be treated as votes or a forecasted margin.
North Carolina’s 3rd District is one of several Republican-held seats receiving closer attention as both parties compete for control of the U.S. House.
Sources
- Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Sept. 29 House ratings changes
- Reuters: spending expands into previously safer U.S. House districts
- North Carolina State Board of Elections: 2026 general-election candidate list
Photo Credit: Raymond Smith portrait by the North Carolina General Assembly, public domain; Greg Murphy portrait by the U.S. Congress, public domain. Official portraits via Wikimedia Commons.
Editor’s Note: This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence and was reviewed and fact-checked by a member of the NC Political News editorial team before publication.