RALEIGH – The Cook Political Report moved North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate race from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat on Tuesday, strengthening its assessment of Democrat Roy Cooper’s position against Republican Michael Whatley.
Cook announced the Oct. 6 change as part of three Senate ratings moving toward Democrats. It also shifted Kansas from Lean Republican to Toss Up and New Hampshire from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.
The nonpartisan election forecaster said it now sees a range of two to six possible Democratic pickups nationally. Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to win control of the Senate.
The North Carolina change is an expert forecast, not a poll or an election result. The Likely Democrat label means Cook sees Cooper as favored under current conditions, but the designation does not decide the race and can change before Election Day.
The move is one category in Cook’s rating scale, from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. It increases the assessed advantage for Democrats without removing the race from the ballot or replacing current polling with an election outcome.
The Washington Post independently reported the rating shifts and said Cooper has consistently led Whatley in polling. The newspaper also reported that Republicans have pulled spending from North Carolina as the party focuses its resources elsewhere.
Cooper is a former two-term governor. Whatley is a former chairman of the Republican National Committee. They are competing for an open seat in a state that, according to The Post, has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator in nearly 20 years.
The change affects the national Senate map as well as North Carolina politics. Cook’s revised two-to-six-seat range now spans the four-seat net gain Democrats need for a majority, making the state part of the chamber-control calculation.
Campaign spending, new polling and late developments could still alter the outlook. Voters in the November election, not a forecaster’s rating, will determine who represents North Carolina in the Senate.
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Photo Credit: Roy Cooper: U.S. Army Staff Sgt. Mary Junell / North Carolina National Guard, public domain in the United States. Michael Whatley: Whatley for Senate campaign-provided press photograph.
Editor’s Note: This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence and was reviewed and fact-checked by a member of the NC Political News editorial team before publication.