WASHINGTON – Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved North Carolina’s 1st and 11th congressional district races from Toss-up to Leans Democratic in an Oct. 20 update, giving Democrats a slight edge in two contests that remain central to the fight for control of the U.S. House.
The ratings are assessments by the University of Virginia Center for Politics, not election forecasts or administrative decisions. They do not change ballot access, voting rules or certified results.
In the 1st District, Democratic Rep. Don Davis is facing Republican Laurie Buckhout in a rematch. Sabato’s Crystal Ball said Davis appeared to be leading or tied and gave him a narrow advantage even though President Donald Trump carried the district by about 11.5 percentage points in 2024.
The 11th District is an open seat after Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards ended his reelection bid. Democrat Jamie Ager faces Republican Jennifer Balkcom. The Crystal Ball said Ager had a slight edge and noted that Balkcom entered the race late after Edwards withdrew. Trump carried the district by about 9.5 points in 2024.
The two North Carolina changes were part of a broader national shift. Sabato’s Crystal Ball said its map now includes 223 districts rated at least Leans Democratic, 200 rated at least Lean Republican and 12 Toss-ups. The publication said many of its changes reflected the overall political environment more than new race-specific developments.
The new ratings differ from an Oct. 15 assessment by Inside Elections, which moved both North Carolina races to Toss-up. Political handicappers use different methods and can reach different conclusions as campaigns, polling and spending evolve.
Reuters reported that Republicans currently hold 10 of North Carolina’s 14 U.S. House seats. It also reported that outside groups had spent about $21 million in the 1st District and $14.5 million in the 11th District since Sept. 1, underscoring the national attention focused on both contests.
Voters will decide the races in the Nov. 3 general election. The ratings may shape donor and party decisions in the closing days, but voters—not analysts—will determine the winners.
Sources
- Sabato’s Crystal Ball, “The House: 28 Rating Changes Push More Districts Toward Democrats,” Oct. 20, 2026
- Sabato’s Crystal Ball, 2026 rating changes
- Reuters, North Carolina battleground context, Oct. 21, 2026
Photo Credit: Noclip via Wikimedia Commons, public domain. Western front of the United States Capitol in Washington, D.C. Source: Wikimedia Commons.
Editor’s Note: This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence and was reviewed and fact-checked by a member of the NC Political News editorial team before publication.