WASHINGTON – The Cook Political Report has moved North Carolina’s 3rd and 13th congressional districts from Solid Republican to Likely Republican in its latest U.S. House ratings update.
A current 270toWin table associated with Cook’s House map lists both NC-3, represented by Republican Greg Murphy, and NC-13, represented by Republican Brad Knott, in the Likely Republican category as of Oct. 23. The table says the map was updated at 1:26 p.m. EDT that day.
The change means Cook still expects Republicans to hold both seats but no longer places them in its safest category. Race ratings are analysts’ assessments of the political environment. They are not polls, vote counts or election results, and they do not change any voting procedure or ballot.
WRAL reported that Cook shifted its analysis of the two seats to reflect less certainty than before. The report said both Murphy and Knott had begun running campaign advertisements, while Democrat Paul Barringer, Knott’s opponent in the 13th District, was also on the air.
The ratings change adds two more North Carolina districts to Cook’s list of seats outside the Solid Republican category. Its current table also rates the 1st District a Toss-up and the 11th District Leans Democratic. Those contests involve separate candidates and evidence and are not combined with the NC-3 and NC-13 assessment.
For the parties, the revised ratings could affect where national committees and outside groups direct money, staff and advertising during the campaign’s closing stretch. A Likely Republican rating still gives the Republican candidates an advantage in the forecaster’s judgment, but it signals that the races warrant more attention than seats classified as solid.
Murphy’s district covers much of eastern North Carolina. Knott’s district includes portions of Wake County and several neighboring counties in the central part of the state. Both seats contribute to North Carolina’s 14-member U.S. House delegation and to the national contest for control of the chamber.
North Carolina voters will decide the races in the Nov. 3 general election. The ratings may change again as new information becomes available, but the outcomes will be determined by ballots, not by political handicappers.
Sources
- Cook Political Report: 2026 House race ratings
- 270toWin: Cook Political Report 2026 House ratings table, Oct. 23, 2026
- WRAL: Cook shifts analysis of additional North Carolina districts, Oct. 23-24, 2026
Photo Credit: Greg Murphy portrait by the U.S. Congress, Oct. 16, 2019; Brad Knott portrait by House Creative Services, Jan. 2, 2025. Both are public-domain U.S. federal-government works via Wikimedia Commons.
Editor’s Note: This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence and was reviewed and fact-checked by a member of the NC Political News editorial team before publication.