RALEIGH – Control of the North Carolina House is a toss-up in the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation’s latest public assessment, a more competitive outlook than the narrower Republican majority its director described earlier in October.
In a Nov. 2 account of a CBS 17 interview, NCFREE said Executive Director Alex Baltzegar rated the fight for the House majority a toss-up. The foundation also reported his assessment that Republicans could lose about three Senate seats, leaving them with roughly 27.
Those are analytical judgments about possible outcomes, not election results. They do not establish that either party has won a seat or that a projected change in control has occurred.
The distinction matters because a chamber majority and the numbers needed to override a governor’s veto are separate questions. A party can retain control while losing the voting strength it previously relied on to overcome opposition from the governor.
The new account differs from NCFREE’s earlier outlook, covered by NC Political News in October, when Baltzegar described a possible Republican House majority near 63 seats and said a Democratic takeover was not the base case. The Nov. 2 account does not provide numerical odds for its chamber-control rating.
NCFREE’s published methodology also distinguishes race ratings from its Partisan District Scores. The scores estimate how a generic, nonincumbent candidate would perform in a neutral statewide environment. Race ratings weigh the actual candidates and conditions in individual contests.
Voters are deciding all 120 House seats and all 50 Senate seats Tuesday, according to the State Board of Elections. The legislative elections determine who will write state laws and negotiate budgets, alongside the separate statewide and congressional contests on the ballot.
Election Day polls are open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. Voters must use their assigned polling place. The State Board directs voters to its voter-search tool to check their location.
Sources
- NCFREE: Nov. 2 account of its chamber-control assessment
- State Board of Elections: Nov. 3 election and voting details
- NCFREE: Partisan District Scores and race-rating methodology
Photo Credit: File photograph of the North Carolina Legislative Building in Raleigh, May 1, 2014, by Abbylabar via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0. Cropped and resized; photographic adaptation shared under the same license. NCPN logo is a separate brand mark.
Editor’s Note: This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence and was reviewed and fact-checked by a member of the NC Political News editorial team before publication.