RALEIGH – A new Carolina Forward poll finds Democratic candidates ahead in tests of the U.S. Senate, state Supreme Court and state legislative ballots, with margins ranging from 7 to 10 percentage points.
Change Research surveyed 829 North Carolina likely general-election voters from Oct. 1 through Oct. 7 for Carolina Forward. The sponsor reports a modeled margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Carolina Forward describes itself as an independent grassroots think tank and advocates on state policy, so its analysis is treated as interested commentary.
In the U.S. Senate test with undecided voters asked which way they lean, Democrat Roy Cooper received 50%, Republican Michael Whatley 40%, Libertarian Shannon Bray 2% and Green Party candidate Michael Dublin 1%. Two percent said they would not vote in the race, and 5% were unsure.
The same survey put Democratic Justice Anita Earls at 50% and Republican challenger Sarah Stevens at 41% in the North Carolina Supreme Court contest. Two percent said they would not vote, and 8% were unsure. An August High Point University poll found a narrower 47%-44% split among likely voters, but the surveys used different samples, field dates and methods and do not by themselves establish movement.
On a generic state legislative ballot, 49% chose the Democratic candidate and 42% the Republican candidate; 2% said they would not vote and 7% were unsure. HPU’s August survey asked separate House and Senate questions and found smaller Democratic edges in both. Those differently worded results are context, not a direct trend line.
The State Board of Elections says the general election is Nov. 3 and lists Earls and Stevens for the statewide Supreme Court seat. The Senate result and the generic legislative result also carry consequences for North Carolina’s federal delegation and control of the General Assembly.
Carolina Forward’s release argues that the results point to a Democratic wave. That is the sponsor’s interpretation, not a finding that the election outcome is settled.
Polls are snapshots of a defined sample during a specific period. Sampling design, question wording, turnout and decisions made before Election Day can produce a different result.
Sources
- Carolina Forward: The October 2026 Carolina Forward Poll
- High Point University Poll 126
- North Carolina State Board of Elections: 2026 Judicial Voter Guide
Photo Credit: Warren LeMay via Wikimedia Commons, CC0 1.0 public-domain dedication. North Carolina State Capitol in Raleigh, photographed July 29, 2017.
Editor’s Note: This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence and was reviewed and fact-checked by a member of the NC Political News editorial team before publication.