ASHEVILLE – The Cook Political Report moved North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District from Lean Republican to Toss Up in its Sept. 25 House ratings update, a change that places the open western North Carolina seat among the country’s most competitive races.
The rating is an expert assessment of the contest, not a poll or a prediction of the final result. Cook’s current race page lists the district as an open seat and records the movement from Lean Republican to Toss Up. The change followed U.S. Rep. Chuck Edwards’ decision to suspend his reelection campaign and the selection of state Rep. Jennifer Capps Balkcom to replace him on the Republican ballot.
The North Carolina State Board of Elections’ current general-election candidate list identifies Balkcom as the Republican nominee, Jamie Ager as the Democratic nominee and Travis Groo as the Libertarian nominee. The election is scheduled for Nov. 3.
The National News Desk reported that Cook moved 15 House ratings toward Democrats on Sept. 25. The outlet said Cook projected Democratic gains of five to 15 seats and placed 22 races in the Toss Up category. The North Carolina change is specific to Cook’s ratings. Other forecasters may use different categories, methods and update schedules.
North Carolina’s 11th District covers Asheville, Hendersonville and much of the state’s western mountains. The move to Toss Up signals that Cook no longer sees either major party as having a clear advantage in the contest.
Cook’s change also marks a departure from the district’s earlier status in the 2026 cycle. The seat had been rated Lean Republican before Sept. 25. The new Toss Up label describes competitiveness at the time of the update, and Cook may change it again as campaigns, fundraising and the broader political environment develop.
The rating change does not alter the ballot or determine the outcome. Ager, Balkcom and Groo remain the candidates listed by the state election board, and voters will decide the seat in the November general election.
Sources
- Cook Political Report: House Race Ratings
- North Carolina State Board of Elections: 2026 General Candidate List
- The National News Desk: Forecast shifts 15 House races toward Democrats
Photo Credit: National Park Service Digital Image Archives via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.
Editor’s Note: This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence and was reviewed and fact-checked by a member of the NC Political News editorial team before publication.