WASHINGTON – The Cook Political Report moved North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District from Lean Republican to Toss Up on Friday, raising the assessed competitiveness of Democratic U.S. Rep. Don Davis’ race against Republican Laurie Buckhout.
The change was one of four House contests in Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina and Virginia that Cook shifted from Lean Republican to Toss Up, according to Axios. Cook moved 18 House races toward Democrats in its Oct. 9 ratings update.
Axios reported that Cook’s new national outlook projects a Democratic gain of nine to 19 seats, with a likely House range of 224 to 234 Democratic seats. The same report said six Democratic-held seats and 15 Republican-held seats were rated Toss Up after the changes.
A Toss Up rating means the nonpartisan election analyst does not see either party as having a clear advantage in the contest. The rating is an expert assessment of the race, not a voter poll or an election result, and it can change as new campaign information becomes available.
Davis, the incumbent, is seeking another term in the northeastern North Carolina district. The official North Carolina State Board of Elections candidate list shows Davis, a Democrat; Buckhout, a Republican; and Libertarian Tom Bailey on the Nov. 3 general election ballot.
The rating change has consequences beyond the district because control of the U.S. House is closely contested. North Carolina’s 1st District is now among the races Cook considers most competitive, making campaign developments and turnout in the district more important to each party’s path to a House majority.
Voters, not ratings organizations, will decide the race on Election Day. Cook’s move reflects its current assessment as of Oct. 9 and does not predict a final result.
Sources
- Cook Political Report: North Carolina 1st District race rating
- Axios: Cook report moves 18 House races toward Democrats
- North Carolina State Board of Elections: 2026 general candidate list
Photo Credit: Official portraits of U.S. Rep. Don Davis (U.S. House of Representatives, public domain) and Laurie Buckhout (U.S. Department of Defense, public domain), via Wikimedia Commons.
Editor’s Note: This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence and was reviewed and fact-checked by a member of the NC Political News editorial team before publication.