RALEIGH – A Democratic-sponsored GQR poll found Democratic U.S. Rep. Don Davis leading Republican Laurie Buckhout by 8 percentage points in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, 47% to 39%. Libertarian Thomas Bailey received 8%, while 6% were undecided.
The survey of 500 likely November voters was conducted Sept. 29 through Oct. 4 using live telephone interviews on landlines and cellphones, according to an Oct. 5 polling memo. GQR said the sample was drawn from the North Carolina voter file and modeled for the expected electorate. The memo did not publish a margin of sampling error.
The poll also measured candidate favorability. Davis was viewed favorably by 41% of respondents and unfavorably by 27%. Buckhout’s ratings were 28% favorable and 38% unfavorable. GQR reported that 24% had no opinion of Davis, while 29% had no opinion of Buckhout.
GQR also produced an allocated two-candidate result after assigning Bailey supporters and undecided voters by second choice or partisanship. That calculation put Davis ahead 50% to 45%. The allocated figure is a model derived from the three-candidate responses, not a separate head-to-head ballot test.
Call the Map, an independent election-ratings and polling archive, lists the survey as Democratic-sponsored. No sponsor is identified in the public GQR memo. That alignment matters when interpreting the result: it is one campaign-side snapshot, not an independent polling average or a prediction of the Nov. 3 outcome.
The poll measures opinion during a six-day field period. Later campaign events, turnout patterns and ordinary polling error could change the result. Neither the archive listing nor the GQR memo is an official election return; the outcome will be determined by ballots counted and certified after Election Day.
The State Board of Elections’ candidate list confirms Davis, Buckhout and Bailey are the three candidates on the general-election ballot in the district. The result provides a fresh public measure of a congressional race with direct consequences for North Carolina’s delegation and the balance of power in the U.S. House.
Sources
- GQR polling memo, Oct. 5, 2026
- Call the Map NC-1 poll archive
- North Carolina State Board of Elections candidate list
Photo Credit: Official portraits of U.S. Rep. Don Davis (U.S. House of Representatives, public domain) and Laurie Buckhout (U.S. Department of Defense, public domain), via Wikimedia Commons.
Editor’s Note: This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence and will be independently reviewed and fact-checked by a member of the NC Political News editorial team before any private-draft delivery.