RALEIGH – An Elon University Poll released Tuesday found Democrat Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley 52% to 39% among likely voters in North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate race.
In the poll’s initial likely-voter ballot question, 6% were undecided and 3% selected another choice. A separate follow-up that asked undecided voters to choose between the two major-party nominees produced a 54% to 43% result. The questions measure different groups and should not be treated as interchangeable.
The Elon University Poll said YouGov conducted the online survey from Sept. 29 through Oct. 8. The study used a nonprobability panel of 800 North Carolina adults. The initial likely-voter ballot question included 561 respondents, and the forced-choice follow-up included 560. Elon reported a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points for likely-voter estimates.
Because the survey used a nonprobability panel, the credibility interval is not the same as the margin of sampling error from a probability sample. The results are a snapshot of the respondents during the field period, not a forecast of the election.
The North Carolina State Board of Elections lists the general election for Nov. 3, with one U.S. Senate seat on the statewide ballot. The board says early voting runs through Oct. 31.
The Elon finding follows other public polling of the Cooper-Whatley contest, including a separate SurveyUSA poll published earlier this week. The surveys used different field dates and methods, so their results should be evaluated separately.
Sources
- Elon University Poll topline and methodology, Oct. 20, 2026
- North Carolina State Board of Elections, Upcoming Election
- Forbes, “Hottest 2026 Midterm Races,” Oct. 20, 2026
Photo Credit: Roy Cooper: NetwonsBucket via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0. Michael Whatley: Gage Skidmore via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0. Both photographs were cropped; the composite is distributed under CC BY-SA 4.0.
Editor’s Note: This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence and was reviewed and fact-checked by a member of the NC Political News editorial team before publication.