HIGH POINT – A new High Point University poll puts Democrats ahead on generic ballots for both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly among likely voters.
On the North Carolina House question, 48% selected the Democratic candidate in their district and 44% selected the Republican candidate. The technical memo reports 2% for another party and 7% unsure, while HPU’s companion public summary reports 1% for another party and 7% unsure. On the state Senate question, both records report Democrats ahead 49% to 44%, with 1% for another party and 7% unsure. Because HPU’s records differ on the House figure, the reported rounded totals are 100% in the public summary and 101% in the technical memo; the Senate total is 101%.
HPU’s Survey Research Center surveyed 1,003 North Carolina adults through an online panel supplied by Dynata. The sample included 813 self-identified registered voters and 706 people classified as likely voters. The legislative ballot results are based on those 706 likely voters.
The university describes the sample as a nonprobability panel, meaning respondents were recruited from an existing online pool rather than selected randomly from all North Carolina voters. HPU reports a plus-or-minus 3.9 percentage-point credibility interval for likely-voter results and says a conventional margin of sampling error is not appropriate for the survey.
HPU’s published records also disagree on the field dates. The technical memo says interviews were conducted Sept. 9-16, while the companion public summary says Sept. 6-16. The university’s public materials did not resolve either discrepancy.
Both questions asked voters to choose between a generic Democratic or Republican candidate in the respondent’s own district. They did not name legislative candidates. The State Board of Elections says all 120 state House seats and all 50 state Senate seats are on the Nov. 3 ballot.
The statewide figures are an aggregate measure, not a district-by-district forecast. They do not identify which seats are competitive, account for the political makeup of individual districts or translate directly into a projected number of seats for either party.
Control of the General Assembly affects state budgets, legislation and the handling of gubernatorial vetoes. The final balance of power, however, will be determined by separate district contests and voter turnout. This poll alone does not establish that either party will win a chamber or that opinion has moved from an earlier survey.
The Sept. 24 release provides one current measure of likely-voter preference. Comparisons with other polls require attention to different samples, likely-voter models, question wording and field dates.
Sources
- High Point University Poll 127 technical memo
- High Point University Poll 127 public summary
- North Carolina State Board of Elections: 2026 election offices and dates
Photo Credit: P. Hughes via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0. North Carolina State Legislative Building in Raleigh, photographed July 18, 2026. Adapted by cropping and adding the NC Political News footer and logo. License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Editor’s Note: This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence and was reviewed and fact-checked by a member of the NC Political News editorial team before publication.