RALEIGH – A Quantus Insights poll released Monday found Democrat Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley 51.4% to 42.8% among likely voters in North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate race.
The 8.6-point margin was based on the poll’s initial ballot question. Quantus reported 3.4% undecided. When undecided respondents were asked which candidate they leaned toward, Cooper led 52.4% to 43.4%, a 9-point spread. A separate two-candidate question produced a 53.2% to 44.1% result.
Quantus said unaffiliated voters backed Cooper 55% to 36%, while women favored Cooper 55% to 39%. Men divided 48% for Whatley and 47% for Cooper. Voters 65 and older favored Whatley 51% to 45%, while Cooper led among younger age groups. The pollster also reported a Cooper advantage among urban and suburban voters and a Whatley lead among rural voters.
The survey was conducted Oct. 24-25 among 722 likely voters invited by text message to complete a mobile survey. Quantus reported a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The release says the sample was weighted to a likely-voter frame built from voter-file data and a turnout model, then calibrated against the certified 2024 presidential result.
Quantus published the survey under its own name and did not identify a separate commissioning client in the release. The organization previously surveyed the race in September, when it reported Cooper ahead by 5.1 points. Quantus said the change between the two waves was within the margin for a wave-to-wave comparison and should not, by itself, be treated as proof of movement.
Political Wire independently reported the new topline Monday. Its account repeated Cooper’s 51% to 43% lead and the reported 4-point margin of error, but it did not independently replicate the survey.
Poll results are snapshots of respondents during their field periods, not forecasts of the Nov. 3 election.
Sources
- Quantus Insights: North Carolina Senate poll, Oct. 26, 2026
- Political Wire: Roy Cooper leads in North Carolina Senate race, Oct. 26, 2026
Photo Credit: Roy Cooper photograph by NetwonsBucket via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0). Michael Whatley photograph by Gage Skidmore via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0). Both photographs were cropped; the composite is distributed under CC BY-SA 4.0.
Editor’s Note: This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence and was reviewed and fact-checked by a member of the NC Political News editorial team before publication.