RALEIGH – A Trafalgar Group poll released Monday shows Democrat Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley by 7.9 percentage points in North Carolina’s 2026 U.S. Senate race.
Cooper received 48.8% support and Whatley received 40.9% in the survey. Green Party candidate Michael Dublin had 2.0%, Libertarian Shannon W. Bray had 1.4%, and 6.9% of respondents were undecided.
Trafalgar conducted the poll Oct. 8-10 among 1,091 likely general-election voters. The pollster reported a 7.3% response rate, a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points and a 95% confidence level. Its published report links to the firm’s general methodology but does not identify a separate sponsor or commissioning client.
The State Board of Elections’ current general-election candidate list confirms Cooper, Whatley, Dublin and Bray as the four candidates in the U.S. Senate contest. Election Day is Nov. 3.
The result is one measurement of voter opinion, not a prediction. Sampling choices, turnout assumptions, question wording and weighting can affect a poll’s findings, and the reported margin of error does not account for every possible source of survey error.
The new survey fits a broader pattern in the race. Reuters reported Monday that Cooper had led Whatley in polls through September and into October, sometimes by double digits. Reuters also reported that Cooper had raised $35 million and entered July with $21 million on hand, compared with $11 million raised and $3.5 million on hand for Whatley.
Republicans have spent about $45 million in the race, nearly $20 million more than Democrats, Reuters reported. Even so, a top Republican super PAC redirected resources from North Carolina to Kansas as the battle for Senate control shifted.
The North Carolina seat is open because Republican Sen. Thom Tillis did not seek reelection. With Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority, the result could help determine which party controls the chamber next year.
Sources
- Trafalgar Group North Carolina statewide survey, released Oct. 12
- Reuters: races that will decide control of the U.S. Senate, Oct. 12
- North Carolina State Board of Elections 2026 general-election candidate list
Photo Credit: Roy Cooper: U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Mary Junell / North Carolina National Guard, public domain in the United States. Michael Whatley: Whatley for Senate campaign press photograph from the campaign’s media toolkit.
Editor’s Note: This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence and was reviewed and fact-checked by a member of the NC Political News editorial team before publication.