RALEIGH – A new statewide poll found that 85% of likely North Carolina voters have at least some confidence that ballots in the November election will be counted accurately, days before in-person early voting begins.
The SurveyUSA poll, commissioned by WRAL-TV and WSOC-TV, found 43% had full confidence and 42% had some confidence in the count. Ten percent reported little confidence, 3% had no confidence and 1% were unsure. The voting-confidence question was asked of 643 people who had already voted or were identified as likely general-election voters.
The same likely-voter group gave Democrat Roy Cooper a 54%-40% lead over Republican Michael Whatley in the open U.S. Senate race. One percent chose another candidate and 5% were undecided. Among independents, Cooper led 59%-28%.
Separate questions asked 778 registered voters about the state’s top executives. President Donald Trump received 37% approval and 60% disapproval, while Gov. Josh Stein received 46% approval and 32% disapproval. Because the approval questions used the broader registered-voter group, those results should not be treated as directly interchangeable with the likely-voter ballot test.
SurveyUSA interviewed 900 North Carolina adults online from Oct. 7 through Oct. 11 using a nonprobability panel supplied by Lucid Holdings. The pollster identified 778 registered voters and 643 likely voters or people who had already voted. Results were weighted to federal demographic estimates and North Carolina party-affiliation data. SurveyUSA reported a five-point credibility interval for the likely-voter questions and 4.6 points for the registered-voter approval questions.
The State Board of Elections says early voting begins Thursday at 370 sites statewide and runs through 3 p.m. Oct. 31. Election Day is Nov. 3. The new Senate result also fits the broader polling pattern: Reuters reported Sunday that Cooper had led Whatley in surveys through September and into October as control of the chamber remained at stake.
Polls measure a defined sample at a specific time, not a final outcome. The online panel, weighting choices, turnout assumptions, question wording and decisions made before Election Day can produce a different result.
Sources
- SurveyUSA Election Poll #28047
- North Carolina State Board of Elections: early-voting guidance
- Reuters: races that will decide control of the U.S. Senate
Photo Credit: Warren LeMay via Wikimedia Commons, CC0 1.0 public-domain dedication. North Carolina State Capitol in Raleigh, photographed July 29, 2017.
Editor’s Note: This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence and was reviewed and fact-checked by a member of the NC Political News editorial team before publication.