RALEIGH – Inside Elections moved North Carolina’s 1st and 11th Congressional District contests to Toss-up in an Oct. 15 rating update, placing both among the country’s most competitive U.S. House races.
The nonpartisan elections publication shifted the 1st District from Tilt Republican to Toss-up and the 11th District from Lean Republican to Toss-up. The ratings are an expert assessment of race competitiveness. They are not a poll, a prediction of the final result or an official election outcome.
North Carolina State Board of Elections records list Democratic U.S. Rep. Don Davis, Republican Laurie Buckhout and Libertarian Tom Bailey in the 1st District contest. In the 11th District, the ballot lists Republican Jennifer Capps Balkcom, Democrat Jamie Ager and Libertarian Travis Groo.
The State Board candidate list, updated Oct. 13, is the controlling record for who is on the general-election ballot. It does not assign ratings, and the private forecaster’s category has no administrative effect.
The two changes matter beyond the individual districts because control of the U.S. House is closely divided. Inside Elections’ current outlook shows Republicans holding a 220-215 majority and says Democrats need a net gain of three seats for control. Its national projection calls for a Democratic gain of 10 to 20 seats, while noting that individual race ratings can change as campaigns develop.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee separately listed the same two North Carolina changes in an Oct. 15 release covering 22 districts. The DCCC is the House Democrats’ campaign arm, so its advocacy claims are not independent analysis; its release is used here only to corroborate the public rating changes.
The Inside Elections actions are distinct from earlier Cook Political Report moves involving the same districts. Different forecasters use their own methods and may update races at different times. A Toss-up rating does not change the ballot, determine a winner or replace the official vote count.
Sources
- Inside Elections: House Report Shorts (Oct. 15, 2026)
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Oct. 15 rating-change list
- North Carolina State Board of Elections, 2026 general-election candidate list
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Editor’s Note: This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence and was reviewed and fact-checked by a member of the NC Political News editorial team before publication.