The Threat of Republican Voter Suppression Tactics Disguised as Fraud Prevention
In recent years, there have been concerns about efforts by some Republicans to pass laws that may make it more difficult for certain groups to cast their vote. These efforts have been framed as a means of preventing voter fraud, but there is little statistical evidence to support this claim. Some argue that these laws may have the unintended effect of suppressing voter turnout, particularly among minority groups.
The Controversial Impact of Voter ID Laws on Minority Voter Turnout
One of the most widespread efforts by Republican law makers centers around voter ID laws. Voter ID laws require voters to present a government-issued photo ID in order to cast their ballot, and as of 2021, 36 states have passed and are currently enforcing some form of voter ID requirement for voting. Of these, 17 states have strict laws that require a government-issued ID, 5 have a lenient ID requirement, and 14 have variations of lenient and strict laws with varying degrees of requirements and exceptions.
While a 2014 study by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) found that ownership rates for government-issued IDs were high among both African American and White voters, critics argue that voter ID laws may still negatively impact minority groups. A 2012 study of voter turnout in Kansas and Tennessee found no significant change in overall turnout, but a 2017 analysis by the Washington Post of voter turnout for elections between 2006 and 2016 found that in states with strict voter ID laws, the turnout gap between white and minority voters ranged from 5.1% to 13.2% during general elections and 11.6% to 18.8% during primaries. The difference in results between the GAO and Washington Post regarding voter turnout is likely attributed to the way both conducted their research. The GAO conducted its analysis of turnout in one state based on comparison with other states during one election cycle. The Washington Post analyzed turnout data covering a span of ten years. This means that although a snapshot in time reveals what appears to be no major impact on voter turnout, a historical analysis demonstrates that there is a very real impact on voter turnout for minority groups in states that have strict voter turnout laws.
Over the years, lawmakers have made efforts to ensure that voters have ample opportunity to make their voices heard, including through the introduction of early voting. However, in 2021, following the outcome of the 2020 general elections, fivethirtyeight.com reported that 24 bills were introduced with the intention of limiting access to early voting. States like Florida and Montana passed laws that not only reduced the length of time for early voting but also limited the number of locations where voters could submit their ballots. Similarly, Georgia, Iowa, Texas, and Kansas passed laws that reduced the amount of time available for early voting. As of now, 106 bills have been introduced in 28 states regarding early voting, many of which are still pending action by their respective legislative bodies.
Currently there are 46 states with no excuse early voting, which ensures that voters can get to their polling place and cast their vote. Efforts to reduce the window, limit the number of early voting locations, or restrict who can take part in early voting are likely to have an adverse impact on minority and low wage-earning voters.
The Battle Rages On: Mail-In Voting Under Siege as Fraud Claims Clash with the Hard Facts
Mail-in voting, also known as absentee voting, was originally established during the Civil War to allow American troops to participate in elections. Since then, it has expanded to the general population, with the state of Vermont leading the way in 1936. Today, 45 states and the District of Columbia offer some form of voting by mail. Six states have all-mail voting systems, and twenty states do not require an excuse for voters to request a mail-in ballot. California joined this group most recently in 2021.
In the 2020 elections, mail-in voting accounted for 45% of all votes cast. However, members of the conservative party launched a campaign to restrict access to mail-in voting, claiming it was more prone to voter fraud. From 2021 to 2023, Republican legislators introduced 552 bills across the country that aimed to limit mail-in voting access, with 45 of those bills being enacted into law.
Opponents of expanded mail-in voting argue that it is more vulnerable to voter fraud. However, according to the Heritage Foundation, only six voter fraud cases were prosecuted following the 2020 election cycle, with just two related to mail-in ballots. Given that over 25 million mail-in ballots were returned, these cases of fraud accounted for a mere 0.000007% of total votes cast by mail. While allegations of voter fraud may have some validity, the numbers do not support claims of widespread fraud.
Therefore, there is no objective justification for further restricting mail-in voting. Such restrictions would infringe on the right of American voters to cast their ballots and would decrease overall turnout. Data from the 2022 elections shows that any restrictions to mail-in voting would disproportionately affect non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black voters over the age of 41.
The Bottom Line.
Republican voter suppression tactics disguised as fraud prevention are a real threat to democracy. Voter ID laws, limitations on early voting, and restrictions on mail-in voting all have the potential to disproportionately impact minority groups and limit their ability to participate in elections. Despite claims of preventing voter fraud, there is little evidence to support such claims, and the actual incidence of fraud is minuscule. Any further attempts to restrict voting access will be an infringement on the fundamental right of American citizens to participate in the democratic process. It is imperative that lawmakers take steps to ensure that all citizens have equal and unfettered access to the ballot box.
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